Well, I was right about one thing heading into last night’s game:
In fact, I was a little bit too conservative with that prediction, as the Dallas Stars were up 2-0 just five and a half minutes into the first. Everything was going perfect for the Stars — the lineup changes were ineffective for the Stars, the camera was cutting to shots of fans who wanted Stuart Skinner pulled, and even Darnell Nurse’s butt helped the Stars score a goal this time instead of preventing one. For that moment in time, it felt like we were about to have a repeat of Game 4 against the Colorado Avalanche, in which Dallas blew out their opponent to take a 3-1 series lead.
Instead… well, the rest of the game happened. I’ve always hated the narrative of the winning team being whoever “wants it more” — every team “wants it,” especially when you get this deep in the postseason But there is something to be said about resting on your laurels, or taking your foot off the gas, or whatever other metaphor you prefer for describing taking a lead and then doing absolutely nothing for it.
Skinner was shaken, primed and ready to be chased out of the net or at least fundamentally rattled for the rest of the night. And to be fair, the Stars got quite a few opportunities to do so and go up 3-0! But they never got the puck on net, going the next five minutes plus without a shot on goal and the rest of the period with only two more in total. Meanwhile, the Oilers, who had only a single shot on net when Dallas went up by two, managed 11 to close out the period, which resulted in two goals in less than three minutes to tie the game.
You couldn’t be happy with blowing that lead if you were Dallas, especially given all the recent criticism about slow starts (or at least bad first periods). But at least the second period meant you could settle things down and get back to business, right? Well, that didn’t work out so hot either — the Stars weren’t exactly getting lit up more, but they still looked out of sorts, the kind of team that was hoping a goal would go their way and they could then hang out to the lead till the end, as they’ve done many times before this postseason late in games.
That opportunity arose when they got a power play towards the end of the second, and for the first time all series long, there was a goal with the man advantage! Unfortunately for Dallas, it was actually a shorthanded goal, the eventual game-winner no doubt. It came courtesy of Mattias Janmark, which was simultaneously surprising and not at all:
Tough break, but at least-wait never mind, Leon Draisaitl already scored to put Edmonton up 4-2. Just like the shorthanded goal, it was another odd-man rush, and the Oilers were able to effortlessly pass the puck cross ice to someone who could then beat Jake Oettinger, because you can’t expect even elite goalies to stop every blown defensive play.
That goal felt like the dagger, and it wasn’t even the end of the second period. That’s how depressing the game had gotten for Stars fans, after riding high for the first seven minutes or so. I’ll be honest, I was watching the game on record, and I put it to 1.5x speed after that — it was just going to be one of those games, so no need to stay on the edge of my seat, watching every pass and shot with my undivided attention.
• Of course, what makes that game sting particularly bad was losing Chris Tanev a little more than halfway through after he blocked a shot. Tanev is a tough dude, more so than the already tough average NHLer, but it’s never a good sign when you limp to the bench, head to the dressing room, and then don’t return for the rest of the game.
Losing Tanev for any amount of time would be killer for the Stars, but not necessarily for the reasons you might think. Yes, Tanev has been stellar in a shutdown defensive role, and not having him specifically on the ice will suck. But the real pain point would apply to any of the Stars’ top four defensemen getting hurt: the affect it has down the rest of the lineup.
There has been a lot of discussion and focus on the Stars’ “super depth,” but it feels like we always forget the “forward” qualifier — I mean, this is the same team that was essentially skating five defensemen per game for the first two rounds. With Tanev out, Ryan Suter will have to move up into the Top 4, a role he struggled in last year and, given his recent struggles (Game 4 was especially bad for him), it’s hard to imagine it fairing much better this time around against Connor McDavid and Leon Draisaitil.
It only gets worse from there: a hole in the lineup means someone else has to slot in, but who? Nils Lundkvist is in theory the next man up, but do you really trust the guy you were playing 2-3 minutes per night against the Vegas Golden Knights and Colorado to play meaningful minutes against Edmonton? Lian Bichsel is an option, but as Sean Shapiro pointed out to me a couple weeks ago, it’s hard to imagine the coaching staff trusts him any more. That leaves you what, Derek Pouliot? Gavin Bayreuther? Not exactly names that inspire confidence.
I would say that hindsight is 20/20, but even after the trade for Tanev, I was arguing for Dallas grabbing another Top 4 defenseman (or, at the least, a solid third pairing guy to kick both Lundkvist and the still-injured Jani Hakanpää). When they didn’t, I questioned whether the Stars’ single move would be enough. And while the whole “five defensemen” thing from the first two rounds was tough to watch, it never truly made me go back and question Nill’s deadline strategy.
But now that the injuries are kicking in? Yeah, perhaps the Stars should have been better prepared.
• This is what I wrote about the Oilers and Stuart Skinner following Game 3:
“The Oilers have found a gameplan that works against Dallas, which is to minimize shots against on Skinner while piling on Jake Oettinger. Their issue is that they cannot seem to sustain that for an entire 60 minutes (hmm, sound familiar?), only single periods or short bursts.”
I want to point out that that’s still true! Well, the first part about “60 minutes” at least — after going down 2-0, the Oilers were able to flip the script and go back to keeping the pressure off their goaltender while jamming the puck down Oettinger’s throat.
A lot of credit has been given to Skinner’s play this series, and I admit that he was solid the first two games. But he probably wants his Game 3 back (at risk of underrating the scoring prowess of Jason Robertson), and even after those first two goals, I think he was shaky in Game 4. For comparison, it gave me a lot more Logan Thompson vibes than Alexandar Georgiev in that Skinner didn’t seem so much as a goalie who had it rough but has since bounced back, but rather someone who was still giving up a lot of opportunities, only Dallas failed to capitalize on them.
Simply throwing pucks at the net willy nilly isn’t going to do anything, but the Stars have to put consistent, sustained pressure on Skinner. If you look at only regulation, the Stars have only shot the puck on net 24, 25, 22, and 22 times this series against Edmonton. They’re facing a goalie who was arguably the worst of those who advanced to the second round and are completely squandering their opportunities to take advantage of him (beyond the first five minutes of last night’s game). Credit to the Oilers’ defensive structure, but that’s truly unacceptable.
• For all the doom and gloom (which is to be expected after a loss like that), I’m going to go out on a limb here and say that I still think Dallas pulls off the series win, with or without Tanev. They still have home-ice advantage, which will help in getting their preferred matchups against McDavid and Draisaitl, and the team in general bounces back well from losses (5-1 this postseason). I have a hard time believing they lose a second game in a row, which is what needs to happen for Edmonton to close out this series.
That being said, Game 5 kind of feels like a “must win” in that regard. Giving Edmonton a chance to close out the series on home ice in Game 6 feels like a recipe for disaster, even with the Stars’ stellar road record. Of course, winning Game 5 but then losing in Edmonton anyways just sets you up for a “winner take all” in Game 7, which also doesn’t sit well in my stomach, Pete DeBoer’s ridiculous record aside.
Basically what I’m saying is: Dallas, please just win two straight so I can calm down for at least a day. Thank you in advance.